Most tax filers get a refund, but the percentage shifts year to year
In recent years, roughly 70 to 80 percent of people who file a federal tax return receive a refund. The exact percentage changes annually depending on economic conditions, tax law changes, and how many people adjust their withholding. The IRS does not publish a single fixed number—the rate varies based on the filing year and the mix of filers.
The percentage also depends on who you count. Some years the IRS reports the share of all returns filed. Other years they report only individual income tax returns, which excludes business returns and other forms. When you see a figure cited, it usually refers to individual returns filed by people, not corporations or partnerships.
Key Takeaways
- Between 70 and 80 percent of individual tax filers receive a refund in most years, though this percentage fluctuates based on tax law and economic factors.
- The percentage is higher among lower-income filers and lower among higher-income filers, because lower earners are more likely to have taxes withheld in excess of what they owe.
- The IRS publishes refund statistics each year, but the exact percentage depends on how they define and count the returns included in their report.
- Getting a refund means you overpaid taxes during the year through withholding or estimated payments, not that you received money you did not earn.
Why the percentage varies year to year
Tax refund rates shift because of changes in tax law, shifts in the economy, and changes in how people file. When Congress passes a new tax law—such as changes to the standard deduction or tax brackets—it can alter how much tax people owe and how much has been withheld from their paychecks. A significant change in withholding rules or tax credits can move the needle on refund rates across the entire filing population.
Economic conditions also matter. During recessions or periods of high unemployment, more people may have lower incomes and therefore claim larger refundable tax credits, which increases the refund rate. Conversely, in years of strong wage growth, more filers may end up owing money instead of receiving a refund.
The IRS also changes how it counts and reports these statistics. Some years they include all returns filed; other years they report only certain categories. This means a figure from 2015 may not be directly comparable to a figure from 2023, even if the underlying refund behavior was similar.
Who is most likely to receive a refund
Lower-income filers are more likely to receive a refund than higher-income filers. This is partly because lower earners often have taxes withheld from paychecks at a standard rate that exceeds what they actually owe, especially if they have dependents or claim certain credits. A single parent earning $35,000 a year with two children may have a large refund because of the Child Tax Credit and Earned Income Tax Credit, both of which can exceed the tax owed.
Higher-income filers are less likely to receive a refund because they often adjust their withholding more carefully or pay estimated taxes throughout the year. Self-employed people and business owners also tend to owe money rather than receive refunds, because they manage their own tax payments and have more control over how much they set aside.
Filing status matters too. Married couples filing jointly have different refund patterns than single filers, partly because joint returns can trigger different tax brackets and credit limits. The more complex your tax situation, the more likely you are to have adjusted your withholding or made estimated payments, which reduces the chance of a large refund.
What the IRS data actually shows
The IRS publishes annual statistics on refunds in its Data Book, released each year. The most recent reports show that in 2022, approximately 77 percent of individual income tax returns resulted in a refund. In 2021, the figure was around 78 percent. These numbers include all individual returns filed, whether electronically or on paper.
The average refund amount also varies. In recent years, the average federal refund has ranged from about $2,700 to $3,200, depending on the year. This average includes both small refunds of a few hundred dollars and large refunds of several thousand, so the median (middle value) is often lower than the average.
The IRS breaks down refund data by income level, filing status, and other categories in their annual reports. If you want to see the exact figures for a specific year, the IRS Data Book is available on the IRS website and includes tables showing refund percentages and amounts by demographic group.
How refunds relate to tax withholding
A refund simply means you paid more in taxes during the year than you owed. This happens through withholding from paychecks, estimated tax payments, or both. It does not mean you received extra money or that the government gave you something you did not earn—it means you lent the government money interest-free and are getting it back.
If you consistently receive a large refund, you may want to adjust your withholding. You can file a new W-4 form with your employer to reduce the amount withheld from each paycheck. This puts more money in your pocket throughout the year instead of waiting for a refund. The IRS provides a withholding calculator on its website to help you figure out the right amount.
Conversely, if you owe money at tax time, you may need to increase your withholding or make estimated payments if you are self-employed. Adjusting withholding is free and takes only a few minutes.
State refund rates differ from federal rates
State tax refund rates do not always match the federal rate. Some states have simpler tax codes with fewer credits, which can result in lower refund rates. Other states have refundable credits that push refund rates higher. A few states have no income tax at all, so there is no state refund to receive.
States also publish their own refund statistics, though not all do so consistently or in the same format as the IRS. If you want to know the refund rate for your state specifically, contact your state tax authority or check their annual report. The refund rate in your state may be higher or lower than the national federal average.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does getting a refund mean I did something wrong on my taxes?
No. A refund simply means you paid more in taxes during the year than you owed. This is common and happens to most filers. It usually results from withholding being set conservatively or from claiming tax credits that reduce your tax bill.
Is it better to get a refund or owe money?
Neither is inherently better. A refund means you lent the government money interest-free; owing money means you had more of your own money during the year. The ideal outcome is to owe zero and receive zero, which means your withholding matched your actual tax liability exactly. Adjust your W-4 if you want to change the outcome.
Why do some people not get a refund?
People who owe money typically have adjusted their withholding carefully, are self-employed, have significant investment income, or have a complex tax situation. Higher earners are also more likely to owe because they may not have enough tax withheld relative to their income.
Can I find out what percentage of people in my income bracket get a refund?
Yes. The IRS Data Book breaks down refund statistics by adjusted gross income level. You can find the most recent year's data on the IRS website under their annual statistics. This shows you how your situation compares to others in your income range.
Does the refund percentage include people who do not file taxes?
No. The percentage only includes people who actually file a tax return. It does not include people who do not file, people who are not required to file, or people who file but have no tax liability. The percentage is calculated only from returns filed.