About seven out of ten tax filers receive a refund

In recent years, roughly 70 percent of Americans who file a federal tax return receive a refund. That means in a year when 150 million people file, about 105 million of them get money back. The exact percentage shifts slightly year to year depending on economic conditions, changes to tax law, and how many people adjust their withholding.

The IRS publishes these numbers each filing season. The percentage has held fairly steady between 68 and 72 percent for the past decade, though the dollar amounts people receive vary widely. Some filers get a few hundred dollars back; others receive several thousand.

The reason so many people receive refunds is straightforward: most workers have taxes withheld from their paychecks throughout the year, and employers often withhold more than necessary. When you file, the IRS calculates what you actually owe, and if you paid too much, you get the difference back.

Key Takeaways

  • About 70 percent of federal tax filers receive a refund in a typical year, meaning roughly 100 million Americans get money back.
  • The refund percentage has remained between 68 and 72 percent over the past decade, though it can shift based on tax law changes and economic conditions.
  • Refunds happen because employers withhold taxes from paychecks, and most people have more withheld than they actually owe.
  • The average refund amount varies by year and by individual circumstances, ranging from a few hundred to several thousand dollars.
  • People who do not receive refunds either owe taxes or break even, meaning their withholding matched their actual tax liability.

Why the refund rate stays around 70 percent

The consistency of this number comes down to how payroll withholding works. When you start a job, you fill out a W-4 form that tells your employer how much tax to hold from each paycheck. Most people either accept the default withholding or estimate conservatively, which means they end up having more withheld than necessary.

Employers have no way to know your full financial picture—whether you have a second job, investment income, dependents, or major deductions. So they withhold based on the information you provide, and that information is often incomplete or outdated. The result is that the majority of filers overpay throughout the year and receive a refund when they file.

A smaller group—roughly 15 to 20 percent of filers—owes money when they file. These are typically people who did not have enough withheld, had significant income that was not subject to withholding, or claimed deductions that reduced their tax bill below what was already withheld. The remaining 10 to 15 percent break even, meaning their withholding matched their actual liability almost exactly.

How refund amounts differ across income levels

The size of a refund does not follow a simple pattern based on income. Someone earning $35,000 a year might receive a $2,000 refund while someone earning $80,000 receives $800, depending on their withholding choices, family situation, and deductions.

Lower-income filers often receive larger refunds relative to their income because they may be may have access to to refundable tax credits like the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) or the Child Tax Credit. These credits can result in refunds even when no income tax was withheld. A single parent earning $28,000 with two children, for example, might receive a refund of $3,000 or more even if they had minimal tax withholding.

Higher-income filers tend to receive smaller refunds as a percentage of their income because they have fewer refundable credits available and often adjust their withholding more carefully. Self-employed people and those with investment income are also more likely to owe rather than receive a refund, since they do not have automatic withholding.

Changes in refund rates during major tax law shifts

The refund percentage can move noticeably when Congress changes tax law. The most recent significant shift came after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which lowered tax rates and adjusted withholding tables. In 2018, the first year the new rates applied, the refund percentage dropped to around 65 percent, and average refund amounts fell by several hundred dollars.

The IRS adjusted withholding guidance to reflect the lower tax rates, which meant less money was being held from paychecks. Fewer people overpaid, so fewer people received refunds. Over the following years, the percentage climbed back toward 70 percent as people adjusted their W-4s or as the economic effects of the law change settled.

Temporary measures also affect refund rates. During the pandemic, stimulus payments and expanded tax credits changed the refund landscape for 2020 and 2021. The American Rescue Plan expanded the Child Tax Credit and made it partially refundable, which increased refunds for millions of families with children.

Who does not receive a refund and why

The 30 percent of filers who do not receive a refund fall into two groups: those who owe taxes and those who break even. People who owe typically had insufficient withholding, received income without automatic tax removal, or claimed deductions that reduced their tax bill below what was already withheld.

Freelancers, contractors, and business owners are more likely to owe because they do not receive a W-2 with automatic withholding. They must either make quarterly estimated tax payments or pay a lump sum when they file. Some do this correctly and break even; others underestimate and owe.

People who break even—those whose withholding matched their actual tax liability almost exactly—are rare but not uncommon. They typically adjusted their W-4 carefully, had a stable income and simple tax situation, or made quarterly estimated payments that aligned with their actual liability. For them, filing is straightforward: no refund, no payment due.

How the IRS tracks and reports these numbers

The IRS publishes refund statistics in its annual Data Book and in weekly updates during filing season. These reports break down refunds by state, by income level, and by filing method. The data comes from the actual tax returns processed each year, so the numbers are precise rather than estimated.

The IRS also tracks the average refund amount, which typically ranges from $2,500 to $3,200 depending on the year. This average includes both small refunds of a few hundred dollars and large refunds of $5,000 or more, so it does not tell you what you personally should expect.

You can find this data on the IRS website under "Statistics of Income" or in the annual Data Book. The information is usually published several months after the filing season ends, so 2024 data would not be available until mid-2025.

What these numbers mean for your own refund

Knowing that 70 percent of filers receive a refund does not tell you whether you will. Your refund depends on your specific withholding, income, deductions, and credits. The only way to know what to expect is to look at your own tax situation or use a tax calculator.

If you want to receive a refund, you can adjust your W-4 to have more tax withheld. If you want to avoid overpaying and receiving a large refund, you can adjust it to have less withheld. The IRS provides a withholding calculator on its website that walks you through the process based on your actual income and circumstances.

Keep in mind that a refund is not assistance programs—it is your own money that you overpaid in taxes throughout the year. Some people prefer to receive a refund because it feels like a windfall or because they use it as forced savings. Others prefer to adjust their withholding so they can use that money during the year instead of waiting until tax time.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is 70 percent the same every year?

No. The percentage typically ranges from 68 to 72 percent, and it can shift when tax law changes or during economic disruptions. After the 2017 tax law change, it dropped to 65 percent before climbing back up. Major changes to credits or withholding rules can move the number noticeably.

What is the average refund amount?

The average refund typically falls between $2,500 and $3,200, though this varies by year. This average includes people receiving small refunds and people receiving large ones, so your refund could be much higher or lower. The IRS publishes the exact average each filing season.

If I do not receive a refund, does that mean I did something wrong?

No. About 30 percent of filers do not receive a refund because their withholding matched their tax liability or because they owe taxes. Owing taxes is not wrong—it simply means you did not have enough withheld or had income without automatic withholding. You can adjust your W-4 for next year if you want a different outcome.

Can I change my withholding to get a bigger refund?

Yes. You can submit a new W-4 to your employer at any time to increase the amount of tax withheld from your paycheck. This will result in a larger refund when you file, though it also means less money in your paycheck during the year. Use the IRS withholding calculator to decide what works for your situation.

Do self-employed people receive refunds at the same rate?

No. Self-employed people are more likely to owe taxes because they do not have automatic withholding from a paycheck. They must make quarterly estimated tax payments or pay a lump sum when they file. Many self-employed filers owe rather than receive a refund, though some do break even or receive one if they overpaid their estimated taxes.